The Indian stock market today, Friday 31 July 2026, wrapped up July on a cautiously positive note — financials and auto stocks powered the advance, while IT heavyweights snapped their recent winning streak and capped gains. Bulls remain in control heading into August, with the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision on 5 August as the market’s next major inflection point.

🔴🟢 Closing Bell — NSE & BSE, 31 July 2026

Nifty comfortably held the 24,300 zone through the session, with Sensex touching the 78,000 level intraday before settling just below. India VIX sliding to near 2-month lows at 11.94 signals institutional hedges are being unwound — a constructive backdrop for bulls entering August.

⚡ Three Forces That Drove the Indian Stock Market Today

1. Bajaj Finance Blowout Lifts the BFSI Complex
Bajaj Finance surged over 6.2% after delivering stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings with NIM expansion beating estimates. The rally dragged Bajaj Finserv (+4%), Shriram Finance (+2.6%) and SBI Life Insurance (+0.7%) higher. The NBFC and private banking segment became the session’s engine, more than neutralising the IT drag on Nifty 50.

2. IT Sector Snaps Its Five-Day Win Streak
After a solid five-session run, IT names faced sharp profit-booking. Infosys led losses at -3.6%, followed by TCS (-3.0%), Wipro (-2.1%) and HCL Technologies (-1.7%). Mixed guidance commentary around US client discretionary spend and a firming rupee squeezed sentiment in the sector that carries the heaviest index weight.

3. FII Buying + Collapsing VIX Provide a Cushion
Foreign Institutional Investors turned net buyers of approximately ₹3,623 Cr in the prior session, maintaining a supportive undercurrent. With India VIX near 12, implied volatility is contained — keeping downside bets expensive and favouring option sellers and directional bulls.

💥 FII vs DII — The Flow Picture

The big-picture story remains structural: DII ownership in Nifty 500 companies has hit a record 21% — ninth consecutive quarter of increase. Domestic investors have absorbed nearly $58 billion in FII outflows since September 2024, reflecting a fundamental shift where Indian retail and institutional money increasingly drives price discovery. Today’s DII softness is tactical, not structural.

📦 Heaviest Hitters — Largecap Movers in the Indian Stock Market Today

📌 Technical Levels — The Map for Monday’s Session

Nifty 50

Nifty closed above the 24,300 support zone, which has held for four consecutive sessions. Immediate support is at 24,150–24,200 (confluence of 20-DMA and prior breakout). On the upside, 24,500 is key resistance — a clean close above opens the path to 24,750–24,800. Trend remains constructive: higher lows intact, MACD positive.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty found strength from the Bajaj Finance surge to close above 57,200. Key support: 57,249 / 56,934. Resistance: 58,267 / 58,582. RSI (14) ~54 — neutral-bullish. A breakout above 57,900–58,000 would likely trigger fresh longs targeting 58,500+. Below 56,900, momentum turns bearish near-term.

📅 The Week Ahead — Calendar to Trade Around

🎯 Trade Ideas — 4 Setups for the Week Ahead

1. Nifty 50 — Bullish Continuation (Pre-RBI)
Setup: Long Nifty futures / Aug 24,400 CE on a Monday open above 24,380.
Stop: 24,150 (close below 20-DMA invalidates)
Targets: 24,500 → 24,750
Invalidation: Gap-down Monday open on global risk-off or surprise RBI hawkishness

2. Bank Nifty — Range Breakout Play
Setup: Long Bank Nifty on a sustained move above 57,900 with volume confirmation
Stop: 57,249 (key support)
Targets: 58,267 → 58,582
Invalidation: Dip back below 57,000; RBI rate hike surprise

3. Weekly Options — Straddle / Strangle into RBI MPC
Setup: Buy Nifty 24,200 PE + 24,500 CE (Aug 6 expiry) to capture the expected volatility spike from Wednesday’s rate announcement.
Stop: Combined premium paid (max risk defined)
Targets: 2× premium on a 1%+ directional move post-announcement
Invalidation: VIX compresses below 11.5 before the event; no-change+neutral stance by RBI

4. Stock Setups — Three Names to Watch
Bajaj Finance: Post-earnings momentum play — trail stop to ₹7,800; target ₹8,400 over 2–3 sessions.
Mahindra & Mahindra: Support at ₹3,100; breakout above ₹3,250 targets ₹3,500+.
Infosys: Avoid fresh longs until ₹1,680 support holds; recovery trade only above ₹1,750.

🔥 Sentiment Read

Broker positioning heading into August is skewed cautiously bullish. Proprietary desks are light on IT and overweight domestic cyclicals — auto, BFSI, and real estate. Put-call ratios on Nifty weekly options held above 1.1 for most of today’s session, suggesting more open interest is parked in puts (bearish hedges) than calls — a contrarian positive, as market makers are incentivised to defend key put strikes near 24,000–24,200. India VIX at 11.94, near 2-month lows, reflects the Street pricing in less uncertainty — despite the imminent RBI decision.

On X (Twitter), retail trader sentiment tracked via #Nifty and #BankNifty was split: swing traders were bullish on Bajaj Finance and M&M momentum plays, while IT day traders expressed frustration as stop-losses fired on Infosys and TCS longs. The dominant theme in chatter: “Wait for RBI Aug 5 before deploying fresh capital.” This wait-and-watch stance typically compresses volatility pre-event — and may set up a sharp directional move post-announcement.

👀 Tomorrow’s Watch List — Monday 3 August 2026

• Bajaj Finance — Can it consolidate above ₹7,800 after today’s 6%+ surge? Watch for institutional continuation vs. retail profit-booking.
• Nifty 24,300 floor — The critical support. A Monday open below this level would signal near-term weakness; a hold keeps the 24,500 target alive.
• RBI MPC (Day 1) — No announcement yet, but pre-positioning in Bank Nifty futures and rate-sensitives (housing finance, NBFCs) will be the sub-plot.
• US Payrolls impact (Friday night IST) — Any surprise in US non-farm payrolls may influence Gift Nifty and Monday’s gap-open direction.
• Wipro and HCL Tech recovery watch — Oversold after today’s IT rout. Dead-cat bounce possible if US futures open positive; watch ₹270 / ₹1,650 support levels respectively.

Data sources: India TV News (31 Jul 2026), Upstox Market News, BusinessToday FII/DII analysis, 5paisa technical outlook, HDFCSKY Markets (India VIX), Trendlyne FII/DII data, BusinessToday (August 2026 events), TradeCafe RBI MPC calendar. Index closing levels are based on intraday reporting and pre-close estimates compiled at 7:00 PM IST — verify final official levels at NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com).

Tags: Indian stock market today | Nifty 50 | Sensex | Bank Nifty | NSE BSE market wrap | FII DII flows July 2026 | RBI MPC August 2026 | Bajaj Finance earnings | Infosys | India VIX | trade setup | stock market analysis India | July 31 2026

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational content only. Not investment advice. Past market performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.